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Methodology & assumptions

Every number, traceable.

The studio is a forward-looking scenario tool, not a forecast. Below is exactly how each figure is computed and which inputs are confirmed versus illustrative.

Forward mining model

Each miner is projected month by month over the chosen horizon. Hashprice drifts by a difficulty-growth factor; a rational operator (Aerion's AI Operator) idles a miner in any month its spread turns negative, so losses never accumulate.

hashprice(m)   = hashprice0 · (1 + monthlyChange)^m
revenue/day    = (TH/1000) · hashprice(m) · uptime · (1 − poolFee)
margin/day     = revenue/day − energyCost/day − O&M/day
month margin   = max(0, margin/day) · 30.44        (idle when negative)
payback        = first month cumulative ≥ 0
NPV            = −capex + Σ month margin / (1 + r)^m,   r = (1+discount)^(1/12) − 1

Monte-Carlo range

Each module runs a seeded 240-path simulation, varying hashprice level, difficulty drift, delivered energy, and uptime. The P10 / P50 / P90 of payback and NPV form the range you see. The seed is derived from the module, so results are reproducible and update live as you tune inputs.

Inputs · confirmed vs illustrative

✓saleRounds
Whitepaper sale rounds & vesting (summary.json saleRounds).
✓minerModel
Documented reference miner: 234 TH/s @ 15 J/TH (summary.json miningInputs).
~hashprice
Base hashprice €36.63/PH·day from summary.json (as of 2026-05-29). Refresh to a live Luxor value before launch.
~decline
Assumed ≈ −1.5%/month hashprice erosion from difficulty growth (default). Placeholder — calibrate to a difficulty forecast.
~discount
Assumed 12%/yr discount rate for NPV. Set to your actual cost of capital.
~minerCapex
€2,000/unit placeholder (S21-class). Confirm with a real hardware quote.
~energyPrice
Per-site delivered energy cost — pending confirmed site contracts.
~siteParams
Preset site energy / uptime / fleet size are illustrative — pending confirmed site data.
~boostConstants
Mining-Boost formula is from the whitepaper; the constants (S0, exponents) are illustrative — pending calibration & legal review.
~tiers
License-tier ARN thresholds are illustrative — pending the node product decision & legal review.
~arnPriceScenario
A hypothetical ARN price you enter — never a forecast or a value projected by Aerion.

Reference values